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Forecast of solar and geomagnetic activity for a week                
IZMIRAN                        
 :   :
                       2018/12/17
      Weekly Bulletin on Solar and Geomagnetic Activity
                 Highlights on 10 - 16.12.2018,
                  Forecast on 17 - 23.12.2018,
   Carrington Rotation 2211, 2212 (23,17.11; 20,5.12.2018)
            Earth out of ecliptic (-0.2 - -0.9) deg. 
             (S25 - N25 is zone of geoeffectiveness) 

 THE SUNSPOT-FORMING ACTIVITY OF THE SUN WAS AT THE VERY LOW AND LOW
LEVEL, THE SUN WAS SPOTLESS 10, 12-13, 16.12 (207 SPOTLESS DAYS AT 2018). 
ESTIMATED,  MOST LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT 
NUMBER IN THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR PERIOD W= 003+4/-3 (Wn= 
005+7/-5). ON THE SOLAR DISK TWO CONSISTENTLY APPEARED SMALL SUNSPOT  
GROUPS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.

NEXT WEEK THE LEVEL OF SUNSPOT ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN AT VERY LOW LEVEL.
LIKELY WEEKLY AVERAGE VALUE OF THE RELATIVE SUNSPOT NUMBER  IN THE IN-
TERNATIONAL SYSTEM (old) FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS W= 010+10/-10. 

THE FLARE ACTIVITY WAS ON THE VERY LOW LEVEL. NO FILAMENT EJECTION AND 
THREE CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
FLARES >M1 X-RAY CLASSES
        to   tm    te   local.    Class   E(1-8A)  AR   RII/IV CME
                                X-ray/оp   J/m-2
DSF     to      te  localization   l в град.  Fl    AR    CME/to
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEXT WEEK THE FLARE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AT VERY LOW LEVELS.

ON THE VISIBLE SOLAR DISK THE FOLLOWING CORONAL HOLES WERE OBSERVED:
------------------------------------------------------------------------
  sign   N end   E end   S end  W end    Sch    EE   R  G  Space Obser. 
The characteristics of all CHs (up to 8) provided an effect only on the 
polar regions of near-Earth space (auroras).
Sch - CH Square in % solar hemisphere near the central meridian on 
https://www.solarmonitor.org/; n/d - no data; R - solar rotations; 
EE-date of possible geomagnetic disturbance in the Earth's environment. 
G(0-5)-geoeffectivity in last solar rotation on the middle latitudes. 
A-active geomagnetic condition.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

 AFTER 8.12/21 UT EARTH IS IN "-" SECTOR OF THE INTERPLANETARY MAGNE-
TIC FIELD. NEXT SECTOR BOUNDARY -/+ THE EARTH MUST PASS 01.01.

--------------------------------------------------------------------- 
DECEMBER 10     11     12     13     14     15     16   DECEMBER
Wus     000    011    000    000    012    012    000  
F10.7   071    071    071    070    071    071    070  
Хbcg   А2.4   А1.3   А1.2   А1.0   А1.1   А1.2   А1.0   GOES
Sp      000    010    000    000    010    000   000    msh   
N               1                    1        
IMF      -      -      -      -      -      -     -     DSCOVR   
е>2  3.1E+7 9.4E+7 1.3E+8 1.0Е+8 1.0Е+8 7.6E+7 7.0E+7   GOES
Ie>2                                                    pfu 
Ap       11     7      4     1      3      1      2     nТ  
Dst                                                     nТ KIOTO
Amsc     7      8      4     3      2      3      2     nТ IZMIRAN 
--------------------------------------------------------------------
е>2 - Daily Electron Fluency e/(cm2-ster-day) with E>2 MeV.
Ie>2 - the maximum intensity of electron flux in geostationary or-
bits in days according to GOES-15 in (electrons/cm2.s.sr) for events
> 1000 pfu.

 THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT BEGAN 
 10.12 AND OBSERVED 10-16.12.  
 
 NEXT WEEK THE GREATER THAN 2 MeV ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS 
ORBIT IS NOT EXPECTED.

 THE GEOMAGNETIC CONDITION REMAINED UNSETTLED AND QUITE.

 THE NEXT WEEK IS MOST PROBABILITY OF QUIET AND UNSETTLED GEOMAGNE-
TIC CONDITION. 
 
HIGHLIGHT AND FORECAST COMPOSED FROM DATA:
NOAA SWPC, BOULDER, USA               http://www.swpc.noaa.gov,
THE SOLAR INFLUENCES DATA ANALYSIS CENTRE, 
SIDC, BRUSSELS, BELGIUM               http://sidc.oma.be/index.php3, 
THE IZMIRAN, MOSCOW, TROITSK, RUSSIA  http://www.izmiran.ru
                                                          V. Ishkov



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